16 Oct 2025
Written by Amirudin Hamid, Chief Investment Officer of GAX MD
Key Takeaways
- Landmark deals from OpenAI, Nvidia, and Alibaba confirmed a massive new wave of tech investment is underway, reigniting global momentum. The AI Supercycle is accelerating and pointing to sustained sector growth.
- Non-US tech stocks decisively outperformed their US counterparts for the first time in years. This shift signals that the next phase of AI growth is expanding into Asia and Europe, unlocking wider, global investment opportunities.
- Despite looming headwinds like Fed rate cuts and government shutdown risks, the market remains resilient. This stability proves that staying diversified and invested remains the most strategic defense against short-term volatility.
September was a blockbuster month for global markets, led once again by the technology sector. The S&P 500 gained 4.61% while the Nasdaq Composite surged 5.61%, marking one of the strongest monthly performances this year.
In the US, mega-cap names continued to drive market performance. Tesla jumped 33.2% after its board approved a record-breaking US$1 trillion compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, the largest in corporate history. Alphabet rose 14.18%, Apple gained 9.69%, and Nvidia added 7.12%, reflecting solid investor confidence in the technology space.
However, the real kicker behind September’s rally was a wave of landmark deals announced throughout the month, most of which were related to massive investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI). These developments added new momentum to investor optimism and reinforced the view that the AI revolution remains in a powerful expansion phase.
On September 10, OpenAI signed a US$300 billion cloud contract with Oracle, one of the largest ever, signaling the tremendous demand for AI computing capacity. Later in the month, OpenAI also agreed to acquire a 10% stake in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which includes deploying up to 6 gigawatts of GPU capacity over the coming years.
Nvidia, already the world’s most valuable company, was at the center of several high-profile deals of its own. It secured a US$100 billion agreement with OpenAI to supply next-generation AI hardware and announced a US$5 billion investment in Intel to co-develop chips that integrate Nvidia’s AI capabilities with Intel’s CPU strengths. Toward the end of the month, Nvidia revealed a major AI and robotics partnership with Alibaba, coinciding with Alibaba’s announcement of a US$53 billion AI investment plan.
Meanwhile, in consumer technology, competition reignited in the smartphone segment. Xiaomi made headlines by directly challenging Apple. Following Apple’s launch of the iPhone 17 in early September, Xiaomi skipped the “16 series” altogether and unveiled its new “17 series” lineup to go head-to-head with Apple. The company showcased bold innovations such as an L-shaped battery and a dynamic rear display, sparking renewed investor enthusiasm in the next wave of smartphone innovations.
Altogether, these developments fuelled a broad-based rally across the global technology sector in September. What stood out most was the strength of non-US technology stocks, particularly those based in Asia and Europe, where several names surged more than 20% during the month, outpacing even the major players in the US.
Top US and Global Tech Stocks That Surged Over 20% in September.
Source: Gax MD Sdn Bhd.
This shift marked a rare break from years of US tech dominance, suggesting that the AI and semiconductor boom is unlocking new opportunities across the global supply chain, from Taiwan to Europe and China.
While many of September’s landmark deals centered on OpenAI, other leading players such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, Anthropic, Perplexity, and Alibaba are also expected to accelerate AI-related investments in the coming months. The race to secure leadership positions in the next phase of the AI revolution could be a major driver of further rallies across the global AI and semiconductor ecosystem.
The Fed’s First Rate Cut of 2025
On October 17, the Federal Reserve finally cut interest rates for the first time this year. The move was widely anticipated, yet markets reacted positively, especially in the Treasury market, after the Fed signaled the possibility of two additional cuts before year-end and another in 2026. Due to this, markets began pricing in a 0.25% cut at the October meeting and another 0.25% in the final meeting of the year in December.
Still, the path ahead remains uncertain. According to the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, only 10 of 19 senior officials supported two more cuts this year, while the rest preferred one or none at all. With only 12 voting members at each meeting, the outcome could shift depending on how economic data evolve.
This divided stance is understandable given the highly uneven backdrop. The US economy is facing one of its most complex policy environments in recent years, shaped by the Trump administration’s renewed focus on tariffs and fiscal stimulus. Job growth softened to just 22,000 in August and unemployment edged up to 4.3%, which justified the September rate cut. Yet inflation ticked slightly higher to 2.9%, while equities, bitcoin, and gold all touched new highs during the month, signalling the risk of overheating financial markets.
Precious Metals: A Multi-Catalyst Rally
September was nearly a textbook setup for precious metals, and gold and silver did not disappoint. Both delivered some of their strongest monthly gains in years, supported by multiple tailwinds such as sticky inflation, expectations of deeper rate cuts, ample market liquidity, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
At the same time, the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff proposals, which included duties of up to 100% on branded pharmaceuticals and 30% on imported trucks, furniture, and household goods, reignited global trade concerns. Combined with a softer US dollar and surging equity markets, the environment proved ideal for investors seeking to balance the portfolio by including the hard assets.
Meanwhile, escalating political and economic tensions across several countries, from anti-government protests in Indonesia, Nepal, and France to Argentina’s deepening crisis, further strengthened safe-haven demand for precious metals.
Government Shutdowns Return
The latest government shutdown has once again captured headlines after the Trump administration and Congress from Democrat failed to agree on a temporary funding bill. As a result, the US government entered another partial shutdown starting on October 1, suspending non-essential operations while keeping critical services running.
However, historical evidence suggests that such shutdowns rarely cause lasting market disruption. During the 2018 to 2019 shutdown, which was the longest in US history, the S&P 500 bottomed out on the second day and rallied sharply even before lawmakers reached an agreement.
From an investment perspective, government shutdowns tend to create short-term noise rather than sustained market stress. Investors should avoid exiting the market purely on these fears, as history has consistently shown that markets often recover well before the deal is agreed.
S&P 500 Performance during the longest shutdown in 2018 - 2019
Source: Gax MD Sdn Bhd.
Conclusion
September served as a strong reminder that markets can defy expectations even when the macro narrative remains uncertain. While US technology giants have long dominated investor sentiment, the surge in technology stocks across Asia and Europe suggests that the next phase of the AI expansion will be more globally diversified, creating new winners throughout the supply chain. This reinforces the importance of maintaining broad global exposure within any investment strategy.
At the same time, macroeconomic signals remain mixed. The Federal Reserve has already begun its rate-cut cycle, and markets are now pricing in two more 0.25% cuts before year-end. However, with policymakers still divided and inflation data sending conflicting signals, there is no guarantee both cuts will materialize. Investors should therefore avoid making short-term directional bets and remain focused on long-term positioning.
Meanwhile, ongoing trade tensions under the Trump administration and the latest government shutdown are likely to be temporary disruptions. Historically, such events have triggered short-term volatility rather than lasting market damage.
For investors, this is the time to stay invested, not step aside. MYTHEO’s globally diversified portfolios are built to seize opportunities across regions, sectors, and asset classes — helping you participate in global growth while managing risk effectively. With MYTHEO portfolios already delivering solid returns year-to-date, now is the ideal moment to position your investments for the next leg of the global growth.
Refer to our MYTHEO Performance Review for September 2025 for the full breakdown of results and performance insights.
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